Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent upward momentum has encountered a setback, with prices decreasing by 5% from their all-time high, a typical occurrence in a bull market known as a pullback. This decline has also impacted the wider cryptocurrency market, although some assets like BONK and PUMP managed to gain 5% within a 24-hour period, demonstrating exceptions to the overall trend. Notably, the pullback coincided with significant movements from long-term BTC holders—often referred to as whales—transferring their holdings to centralized exchanges, which typically signals potential selling activity. Blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain reported that a well-known wallet containing 80,000 BTC transferred roughly half of its coins to Galaxy Digital; subsequently, 6,000 BTC were deposited into exchanges Binance and Bybit. This activity followed Bitcoin reaching a record high of over $123,000 on Monday.
Market analysts at Tagus Capital highlighted that an increase in the “Coin Days Destroyed” metric, along with a surge in large inflows to exchanges, suggests that some investors may be cashing in on profits. Despite the pressure from selling, Bitcoin’s resilience has been noted, indicating strong institutional backing and robust demand in the market. On Monday, inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped to $297 million, marking a 70% decrease from the previous Friday. Conversely, inflows into Ethereum (ETH) ETFs rose to $259 million from $204 million.
Valentin Fournier, the principal research analyst at BRN, interpreted the slowdown in Bitcoin inflows as a sign of diminishing buyer confidence at current high levels. He mentioned that upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data and Wednesday’s producer price index (PPI) report could influence the market’s next price movement. Fournier noted that heightened inflation expectations due to tariffs could unsettle investor sentiment, while positive economic data might alleviate the current market downturn. Additionally, some analysts are monitoring votes in the House of Representatives concerning the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, which could pave the way for greater institutional engagement in the crypto sector beyond Bitcoin.
In corporate news, shares of Coinbase reached a record high of $398.50 on Monday, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion. Arkham Intelligence indicated that SharpLink Gaming has acquired an additional 24,371 ETH.
In traditional financial markets, the yield on Japan’s 30-year government bonds briefly rose to 3.20%, equaling a multi-decade peak set in May. The MOVE index, which gauges 30-day implied volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, has begun to rise from a previously stable level, signaling potential renewed instability in the bond market.
What to Watch
On July 15, Alchemist will launch an update allowing token holders to stake ALCH for enhanced features and rewards, potentially increasing the utility and demand for the token. Lynq is set to introduce a real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions, built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain, facilitating instant settlements and continuous yield generation. TAC, a layer-1 blockchain employing proof of stake (PoS) consensus, will launch its mainnet, integrating Ethereum’s DeFi applications into Telegram’s ecosystem, which boasts over a billion users.
Additionally, Alephium will activate the “Danube” hard fork upgrade, enhancing transaction speeds and developer tools. Caffeine, an AI-driven platform for creating Web3 decentralized applications using natural language, will be publicly launched at an event in San Francisco. The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will conduct a hearing on federal oversight of digital commodities, while the House Ways and Means Committee will discuss making America the leading hub for cryptocurrencies.
On July 18, the Lorenzo Protocol, a Cosmos-based blockchain, will launch its USD1+ on-chain traded fund on the BNB Chain, allowing users to stake stablecoins for minting tokens that generate returns from real-world assets and financial strategies. The ProShares Ultra XRP Futures ETF is also expected to commence trading on NYSE Arca.
Macro
On July 15, Statistics Canada will release June’s consumer price inflation data, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will unveil its own inflation figures for June. Key speeches by financial authorities, including Andrew Bailey and Rachel Reeves, are scheduled throughout mid-July, addressing economic outlooks and financial regulations.
Additionally, new U.S. tariffs will take effect on goods from trade partners that did not meet a July 9 deadline, with potential increases ranging from 10% to 70%.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Expected earnings reports include Tesla, PayPal, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Reddit, with various projected earnings per share.
Token Events
Governance votes are underway for several decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). Aavegotchi DAO is considering a significant funding proposal, while Uniswap DAO is evaluating a request for liquidity incentives. Rocket Pool DAO is finalizing its implementation details, and VeChain will host a community update.
In terms of token unlocks, Sei, Arbitrum, ZKSync, ApeCoin, and TRUMP will release portions of their circulating supply, impacting market dynamics.
Token Launches
TAC is set to be listed on major exchanges, while Bybit will delist several tokens.
Conferences
The upcoming CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference in Washington aims to connect regulatory executives with officials responsible for crypto legislation.
Token Talk
The native token of issuance platform Pump.fun debuted with a $2 billion market cap, but quickly fell under pressure as early investors sought to cash out. This launch coincided with a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, including a drop in Bitcoin’s value. Binance announced plans to introduce a token launcher to compete with Pump.fun.
Derivatives Positioning
Open interest in XRP futures has reached new heights alongside significant activity in Bitcoin futures, suggesting heightened market volatility. Funding rates for leading cryptocurrencies remain above 10% annually, indicating bullish sentiment, though signs of aggressive selling are emerging.
Market Movements
Bitcoin has decreased by 2.86% to $116,734.47, while Ethereum has dropped by 1.12% to $2,970.70. The CoinDesk 20 index has also fallen, indicating a general downturn across various cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Stats
Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.25%, with a hash rate averaging 906 EH/s. The CME futures open interest is reported at 153,280 BTC.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin and Dogecoin have shown diverging trends since early 2024, indicating a potential waning interest in meme tokens as Bitcoin continues to dominate.
Crypto Equities
Various crypto-related stocks have shown a mix of performance, with companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase experiencing fluctuations in their share prices.
ETF Flows
Daily net flows for Bitcoin ETFs have dropped significantly, while Ethereum ETFs have seen a rise in net inflows.
Overnight Flows
Volmex’s one-day BTC implied volatility remains steady, indicating that traders do not expect significant market fluctuations in the near future.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin’s rally has hit a pause as long-term holders take profits, while Standard Chartered has positioned itself as the first major global bank to offer spot trading for Bitcoin and Ether. Furthermore, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF has reached a record low amid high trading volumes.
